Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
